Predicting the NFL wild-card races

Predicting the NFL wild-card races

The Los Angeles Rams clinched the principle NFL playoff area last week. Extra teams, in particular Kansas Metropolis and New Orleans, are liable to clinch playoff spots this week. Lawful now, all eight division leaders get rid of their divisions in additional than 70 percent of Football Outsiders’ season simulations. Most productive Dallas and Pittsburgh are under Eighty five percent.

As a exchange of overall playoff probabilities this day, we’re going to hearken to the possibilities of the next batch of teams to get rid of one in all the four wild-card playoff spots. Our itemizing of teams leaves out the eight division leaders, nonetheless we will originate sure that to mention the most original probabilities for the listed teams to reverse the standings and take away their divisions. A minimal of 1 in all the teams under comes back to get rid of its division in 59 percent of our simulations.

We have simulated the season 30,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA rankings to receive the playoff odds we employ under. For a beefy clarification on how we calculate every group’s playoff odds, contemplate the bottom of the article.


Wild-card probabilities: 87.6 percent

This week, the Chargers climbed previous the New Orleans Saints into the No. 3 area in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. In our weighted DVOA rankings, which give more energy to more moderen games, the Chargers are No. 2, trailing solely their division opponents in Kansas Metropolis. The Chargers are one in all solely two teams ranked in a roundabout device 10 in DVOA for every offense and protection. (The 2d group is a little bit of a surprise, and we will receive to them under.)

Mix quality of play with a 9-3 story, and it is practically impossible for the Chargers to blow a playoff area no matter getting a fancy December agenda. Los Angeles surges to get rid of its division (and knocks Kansas Metropolis down to a wild card) in 9.7 percent of simulations, making its complete playoff probabilities 97.3 percent.

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